Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again John Maynard Keynes Facebook Economics Edward Hugh has a lively and enjoyable Facebook community where he publishes frequent breaking news economics links and short updates.
Macroeconomics from Edward Hugh Profile Edward is a macro economist, who specializes in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying The process of democratic consodilation in of migration flows.
How can this be, I thought? These two pieces of information would, at least on the surface, seem to be pretty contractictory, with the former suggesting the deepest recession in living memory is getting even worse, while the latter seems to add backing to government claims that the worst is now behind them.
Not unexpectedly this was followed by the July numbers, which saw the largest monthly drop in a decade But a glance at the chart below should also reveal that the decline in retail sales is now long term, and not just a product of the recent crisis.
Sales peaked in midand have since been falling steadily, and while the year-on-year drop was as large as 7. In fact the situation with vehicle and auto part sales which are not included in Eurostat retail sales is even worse than the above data indicate, since given that Hungary is in the midst of a fiscal crisis, there is no room for a cash for clunkers type programme, and sales volume fell an annual The excise tax on fuel is set to go up as of 1 January driving the price of gasoline and diesel up by roughly HUF 11 and HUF 7 a litre, respectively.
Confidence Rises On the other hand according to the GKI sentiment index, confidence is now back at its highest level since October last year, when the credit crisis engulfed the country. The rise follows widely publicised government forecasts that the economy is now heading out of its worst recession in 18 years.
The GKI sentiment index rose to minus Business confidence rose to minus Katona suggested the economy may shrink 5 percent in the fourth quarter after contracting 7. The economy is likely to contract an annual 6.
In the short term therefore, all are agreed that the economy will keep contracting, even if the possibility of a quarter of positive growth which would technically mean exiting recession as currently defined is not excluded. The real issue facing students of Hungarian economic growth is thus notbut the extent of any rebound in and beyond.
It is on this rebound, and the level of inflation associated with it, that the future Hungarian fiscal deficit numbers, and the even more critical debt to GDP numbers, sensitively depend.
The EU Commission currently forecasts 3. Non-Keynesian effects have to do with the offsetting response of private saving to policy-related changes in public saving. In particular, if fiscal adjustment credibly signals improved public sector solvency, a fiscal contraction could turn out to be expansionary, as private consumption rises based on the view that future tax hikes will be smaller than previously envisaged.
As everyone recognises, if domestic demand remains weak, growth will critically depend on exports, but the export potential of the economy will depend on the pace of recovery elswhere in the EU, and on relative prices as expressed through the value of the HUF, but almost no serious consideration is being given to the possibility that either the HUF is overvalued compared to the need to export or that EU growth may also be weaker and harder to come by than most median forecasts are assuming.
And indeed things are worse than they seem at first sight, since Hungary and Hungarians are, by and large, not in debt in their own currency, so allowing excess inflation does not sweat down the debt, since it only make export prices less competitive, unless you devalue to compensate, in which case the relative value of the debt is unchanged.
But if you refuse to devalue, then, quite simply, you get hoisted on your own petard, which is basically where Hungary is right now. So, the real question, as ever, is where the ingredients for growth are going to come from.
So I will correct myself: Anyone not recognising that is living, quite simply, in cloud cuckoo land, and after 40 odd years of Stalinist surrealism one would have thought that Hungarians in general had had enough of all this. Without a major devaluation and even then given international circumstances Hungary will have problems attracting FDI in even the reduced quanities it has been doing over the last five years.
The domestically owned private sector has enormous problems and is tied closely to the level of state spending.
Agriculture and food processing? Successive Hungarian governments have prioritised the precise payment of the debt and have refused to seek rescheduling or restructuring on the grounds that this would damage business confidence. I read the relaxation of budgetary discipline after and especially post as being about the interaction of mounting frustration at low living standards among the population with the dynamic of party competition.
This is what no-one wants to recognise. Quarter on quarter the economy contracted by1.
This was the sixth quarter in a row that GDP growth was negative. The rate of contraction is down considerably on the 2.
In fact domestic demand fell by And the effect continues, since the export-import gap rose again in October, to 9 percentage points from 5.
This impact is not, of course, based on a strong recovery in exports, but rather by the fact that imports fall even more than exports on an annual basis.The decline of the king's feudal revenues.
Problems of constitutional governance in the 21st century will likely be problem s within governments recognized as democratic.
from the fact that thes e regimes seem reasonably democratic. bringing with it the erosion of liberty. How can the answer be improved?Tell us how. Objective: (1) Assisting conflict resolution process between community and APP in fair and transparent way, as well as preparing the community to deal with the company.
(2) Providing experts in several issues related to the conflict resolution process (legal, economic, agriculture, market price of Accacia etc), needed by the community.
Compare the democratic forms of government in the United States and Great Britain.
History and Geography Lifepac Aaron Ang, 3/31/ Although the need for government to have leadership that provides direction is universal among states, the form that the government leadership assumes varies.
Dec 29, · Hungary's Economic Correction Still Fails To Convince Support is much lower for the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF), Politics Can Be Different (LMP), and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ). As the then government chose another type of policy mix for their budget consodilation, these critics never failed to emphasize that.
Conducting learning session with the community on the process of adat community registration. 2. Conducting learning session with the community on adat community movement issues." Activities: (1) Consodilation of Marga and Adat Board of 4 kampongs in Aur Adat community.
(2) Institutional Revitalisation of Kopermas Sup Masi as Community.